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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest surprise.

However the current field is profoundly different. The list of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and longtime also-rans improving collectively. Under an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a wild and fun year, he's up against five other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still